I hope you're doing well. Last week brought significant market turbulence as investors rotated sharply from growth to value stocks amid heightened Federal Reserve uncertainty, delayed economic data releases, and evolving policy shifts in Washington. Despite solid fundamentals, equities experienced sharp reversals.

 

These dynamics highlight the elevated volatility we're navigating. With ongoing data disruptions and emerging macroeconomic risks, the path ahead for Fed policy remains unclear. Below are the critical factors on our radar.

 

Stock Index Performance 

• The S&P 500 declined 1.95%. 
• The Nasdaq 100 slumped 3.07%. 
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.91%.

 

Market Whiplash

• The abrupt end to the 43-day government shutdown ignited a wave of relief-fueled optimism early in the week, but the rally quickly fizzled as investors confronted a glaring problem: no data. Without October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) or labor reports, markets are flying blind, scrambling for clues from private sector indicators and alternative metrics to fill the void.
• The Federal Reserve found itself in the same fog. Lacking fresh inflation and employment numbers, policymakers face a December meeting without a clear compass. Market expectations for a quarter-point cut dipped from 67% to 50% as the week wore on before a dramatic reversal on Friday, underscoring just how much uncertainty the data blackout has injected into Fed calculus.
• Corporate earnings offered some direction, with Nvidia stealing the spotlight. The chip giant — now the world's most valuable company — crushed expectations in its data center business, posting $51.2 billion in revenue despite a minor stumble in gaming. The blockbuster results reignited familiar debates: Are tech valuations sustainable? Can AI momentum carry the market? And who leads from here?
• Meanwhile, Wall Street executed a sharp reversal. High-flying tech stocks got hammered as investors stampeded into old-economy stalwarts: healthcare, industrials, and big banks like JPMorgan and Bank of America. The playbook was textbook: when visibility vanishes, reach for what you know.

 

The Week Ahead 

• The Federal Reserve's next move is in sharper focus, with odds of a December rate cut soaring to 75% by week’s end after dovish Fed commentary on Friday and persistent signs of labor market softening. This is creating support for equities and moderating recent bond market losses.
• Sector dispersion (a measure of the range of returns among different sectors) will remain pronounced. Leaders such as Nvidia and Walmart highlight resilience in AI and consumer spending, but tech and consumer discretionary stocks may face ongoing pressure from cautious guidance, a flight to safety, and headline-driven swings.
• As a reminder, U.S. markets will be closed on Thanksgiving Day and will close at 1 p.m. or 1:15 p.m. ET on Black Friday.

 

Heading into Thanksgiving week, expect continued volatility as equity markets digest earnings surprises, shifting rate expectations, and year-end positioning. We're here to help you navigate the turbulence. Don't hesitate to reach out with questions or concerns.