The U.S. economy showed resilience during the third quarter, although the picture was not entirely rosy. Hiring slowed sharply, while consumer spending picked up. At the same time, the U.S.-Iran conflict drove fuel prices higher and kept inflation elevated. In September, the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023.

Stocks finished the quarter modestly higher, even as the 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since 2007. Higher yields raised borrowing costs and tested the lofty valuations behind the AI rally.

The quarter illustrated how energy prices, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy shaped market results.

 

Major U.S. Stock Indexes

• The S&P 500 climbed 2.03%.
• The Nasdaq 100 edged up 0.44%.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 2.70%.

 

Diesel Prices and the Economy

The U.S.-Iran conflict made diesel the quarter’s most telling price. Diesel powers the trucks, trains, ships, and farm equipment that keep the economy supplied, and late in the quarter, it topped $6 a gallon nationally for the first time. The increase reflected more than expensive crude. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, Iranian attacks on tankers, and Moscow’s export ban sharply cut global diesel supply.

Unlike gasoline, diesel costs are built into nearly everything consumers buy. Businesses can absorb higher fuel bills only for so long before passing them along through freight charges, food prices, and delivery fees. Consumers continued spending, but they grew more anxious about prices, and the diesel spike may help explain why. Even households that never buy a gallon at the pump are paying for it at the checkout.

Energy Costs Kept Inflation Elevated

Energy costs kept inflation from cooling enough to satisfy the Federal Reserve under Chair Kevin Warsh. With food and energy set aside, the picture looked steadier. Underlying price increases held roughly level for months, a sign that the broader economy was not overheating. But with demand holding up and fuel costs still climbing, overall inflation remained well above the Fed’s 2% goal. By late summer, policymakers concluded that waiting carried more risk than acting.

The Fed’s September Rate Increase

At its September meeting, the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time in three years, moving the benchmark federal funds rate to 3.75%–4%. The increase itself was modest, but the signal behind it drew attention. Policymakers indicated that another increase could come before year-end and that rates would likely stay high through 2027. Bond investors responded quickly, pushing long-term Treasury yields to levels not seen since 2007 and lifting borrowing costs across the economy.

For savers, this was welcome news. Money market funds, CDs, and short-term bonds now pay noticeably more. Borrowers faced the opposite, as mortgages and car loans grew costlier.

Events to Watch in the Fourth Quarter

The Fed’s late-October and early-December meetings are among the quarter’s biggest events, and monthly data releases will continue to offer insights into how inflation affects consumers.

The third quarter showed that a strong economy does not always make for an easy market. Evergreen Wealth will follow these developments closely in the weeks ahead. If you would like to review your portfolio, revisit your goals, or talk through any questions, we're happy to do it.