Last week, leading stock indices held their ground near record levels, resilient but rangebound. Surging retail sales and a re-acceleration in manufacturing confirmed the U.S. expansion is intact, while gradual cooling in the job market kept Federal Reserve rate cuts in play for later this year.

 

The economy looks solid, but policy uncertainty is rising. So, with that in mind, here’s a brief overview of how the major indexes finished, what drove numbers last week, and what to look forward to in the week ahead. 

 

Stock Index Performance 

• The S&P 500 inched up 0.55%.
• The Nasdaq 100 climbed 2.37%.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.44%.

 

Macro Picture

 

The U.S.-Iran ceasefire shows strain. The U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreed to in early April continued to fray throughout last week, with the latest peace talks in Pakistan appearing to hit a dead end over the weekend. The Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, due to action by the United States and Iran, making the conflict a potential flashpoint for markets.

 

Fed’s future direction in question. Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation hearing to become the next Fed Chair caught Wall Street’s attention. His message was pointed: the Fed needs a stricter grip on inflation and should wean itself off the balance-sheet tools deployed heavily post-COVID. Markets read that as a higher-for-longer signal on rates, not a crisis, but a meaningful shift in the policy backdrop that could quietly reshape the investing environment in the months ahead.

 

Consumer spending leads the way. March retail sales jumped 1.7% in a single month, well above expectations, with broad-based strength across spending categories. Factory activity reinforced the picture, with the Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) hitting a four-year high. Together, these two data points indicate the U.S. expansion is intact and gaining momentum into Q2, though stronger growth keeps the Fed on hold for longer.

 

 

The Week Ahead 

 

The Fed's rate decision and Chair Powell's press conference following the April 28-29 meeting will headline the week’s agenda. No rate move is expected, so the focus will shift entirely to Powell’s tone. A hawkish message, flagging inflation risks and pushing cuts further out, could pressure growth stocks and nudge yields higher.

 

The other highlight of the week is that five of the Magnificent Seven will report earnings, with Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft posting results on Wednesday (April 29), followed by Apple on Thursday (April 30). Expectations are high. Investors will focus on cloud growth, AI capital spending, and whether margins are holding up. Strong results and confident AI commentary could validate current valuations and keep the rally alive. However, cautious guidance or any softness in revenue growth could trigger a pullback, even if the macro backdrop stays supportive.

 

Markets rarely move in straight lines, and weeks like this one are a good reminder of why staying informed matters.

 

 

This presentation is not an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. The information contained in this presentation has been compiled from third-party sources and is believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy is not guaranteed and should not be relied upon in any way whatsoever. This presentation may not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and does not give investment recommendations. Any opinion included in this report constitutes our judgment as of the date of this report and is subject to change without notice.

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