U.S. markets posted their best weekly gain of this year, with the major indexes all closing firmly in the green.

 

A fragile U.S.–Iran ceasefire pushed oil prices and interest rates lower during the week, only to be driven up by threats of a blockade late in the weekend. Additionally, March's inflation report showed that the recent price spike was driven mostly by energy costs.

 

The underlying data supports that view. Inflation outside of energy is contained, the job market remains on solid footing, and policymakers can afford to stay patient.

 

Below is a closer look at what drove last week's moves and what to watch in the week ahead.

 

 

Stock Index Performance 

U.S. equities posted broad-based gains this week:

 

• The S&P 500 advanced 3.56%.
• The Nasdaq 100 surged 4.45%.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 3.04%.

 

 

What Moved Markets

U.S.–Iran ceasefire and blockade impacts. The news significantly reduced fears of a prolonged supply disruption. Brent futures hit ​their lowest in nearly a month at $90.40, reversing the spike that had pushed gasoline above $4.00 per gallon. Lower oil prices pulled interest rates down, and follow-up U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad added to the sense that the immediate threat has eased. However, over the weekend and into Monday, the United States has threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz after additional peace talks ended without a deal, serving as a stark reminder of how unpredictable this conflict and its impacts have become.

 

March's inflation report brought welcome news. The recent price surge was almost entirely energy-driven, not a sign of broader inflationary pressure. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.3% year-over-year, its highest since mid-2024, but energy alone accounted for nearly three-quarters of that increase. Core inflation came in slightly below expectations at 2.6%, with prices falling in several categories, including medical care. Markets viewed it as confirmation of a temporary shock rather than evidence of a lasting inflation trend.

 

The Federal Reserve has every reason to stay patient. With oil prices falling and core inflation calm, bond markets rallied, and the 10-year Treasury yield drifted toward 4.3%, near a three-week low. The ceasefire triggered a sharp single-day drop in yields midweek as investors moved back into Treasuries. Currently, markets are not pricing in a cut for the next Fed meeting on April 28-29.

 

 

The Week Ahead 

Earnings season gets underway with the big banks. Goldman Sachs reports on Monday, April 13, followed by a concentrated schedule on Tuesday and Wednesday, which includes JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, BlackRock, and Morgan Stanley. These results will give investors their first real look at profit trends, loan demand, and credit quality for 2026. Management guidance will be watched closely for any signs that the economic outlook is shifting.

 

Tuesday's Producer Price Index (PPI) will be the week's most important inflation release. After March's energy-driven CPI surge, the PPI will show whether those higher costs are feeding through into broader business pricing. A stronger-than-expected read on either prices or growth could quickly shift expectations around Fed policy.

 

The weeks ahead may bring more volatility as earnings, inflation data, and geopolitical developments continue to drive sentiment. As always, we're watching closely and keeping an eye on the markets.